Public finance management expert Hovhannes Avetisyan wrote: “A little arithmetic. I think it’s interesting.

I looked at the official data of the moment with the most known cases of virus infection for the four countries registered.

These are: China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

I’ve taken into account the following variables:

– the total population of the country;

– the number of infected at this time;

– the number of dead from the infected;

– the average rate of spread of the infection.

Note:
(For easy count: I have not taken into account the population density in terms of the spread of the infection, I have assumed that every citizen of that country is equally at risk of infection. although the figures suggest about them)the following numbers are:

– infected per 100,000 population,

– the number of deaths per 1,000 people infected,

– average spread rate per person per day per according to 1,000,000 inhabitants.

China:

Infected: six out of 100,000 people.

Deaths: 36 out of 1,000 infected.

Average dissemination speed: 0.6 to 1,000 people/day.

First confirmed cases in December 2019.

South Korea:

Infected: 7 out of 100,000 people.

Deaths: Six out of 1,000 infected.

Average dissemination speed: 1.8 to 1,000 people/day.

First confirmed case: on 20 January, 2020.

Italy:

Infected: Two out of 100,000 people.

Deaths: 26 out of 1,000 infected.

Average dissemination speed: 0.6 to 1,000 people / day.

First confirmed case on 31 January, 2020.

Iran:

Infected: 1 out of 100,000 people.

Deaths: 55 out of 1,000 infected.

Average speed of dissemination: 1 person/day from 1,000,000 infected.

First confirmed cases 19 February, 2020.

Summary:

It turns out that South Korea is the first in terms of infection rate and prevalence. Iran’s infection rate is second, but fourth in prevalence. It can be assumed that the real numbers are either being hidden or have not yet been recorded.

Although Korea has the highest prevalence of infections, the death toll is lower than in other countries. It can be considered that medical services are relatively better.

Iran is the worst state of mortality according to mortality: 55 out of 1,000 infected.

And so, by averaging the data from these four countries, it turns out that the average rate of spread of the infection since the first case is 1 out of 1,000,000 people/day. That is, if we talk about Armenia, in other equal conditions, it is assumed that if the infection spreads, 2-3 new cases should be registered tomorrow.

In general, the probability of becoming infected is very low. If it spreads to Armenia, for example, we will have up to 100 contaminants in a month (with appropriate preventive measures), with a mortality rate of six. This is according to the average scenario of the presented four countries.

If preventive services work well and the public is careful, the situation will be better.

So go to bed and everything will be fine,” he said.