Political scientist Stepan Danielyan wrote on his Facebook page:

“If we try to look at the reality soberly, we see that all three countries of the South Caucasus lose their independence.

In order to save his power, the khan of Azerbaijan had to cede his sovereignty to the Turkish sultan in exchange for the return of the territories. Only that could strengthen his legitimacy inside the country. As a result, Azerbaijan became a vassal of Turkey, and received a Russian military base in Artsakh, which will still have its say its word.

Iran, in the person of Azerbaijan, has received an existential threat, and this will have its consequences. The time is approaching for Iran to turn to the chess knight strategy using the Kurds, which it has experience with since the Iran-Iraq war. In any case, Azerbaijan has no way back, the situation is already settled.

As for Armenia, everything is clearer here. The Azerbaijan + Turkey tandem is too tough for us and we can only rely on Russia. In fact, Azerbaijan and Turkey have left us no other choice.

However, the future of Georgia is also vague. Turkey has de facto occupied Adjara, is trying to compete with Russia in Abkhazia, is making Georgia economically dependent on Azerbaijan, and the Azeris are becoming more organized in the south. Georgia’s hope that it can join NATO or receive military support from the West in other formats is also not encouraging, at least because the keys to the Black Sea are in Turkey’s hands.

Thus, the South Caucasus goes back two hundred years in terms of geopolitical arrangement.”