There is a Danger of Invasion of Armenia in the Coming Days and Weeks. The Lemkin Institute has issued Red Flag Alert

The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention is issuing a Red Flag Alert for the Republic of Azerbaijan in the Republic of Armenia, due to the alarming potential for an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan in the coming days and weeks.

“Azerbaijan has long coveted Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, which has been discussed in the recent past as the site of an Azerbaijani-controlled “Zangezur Corridor” to Nakhichevan. Considering recent political developments in the region—including the Azerbaijani invasion of Artsakh on September 19, 2023 and the ensuing seizure of the territory—and well-established genocidal Armenophobia endemic in Türkiye and Azerbaijan, an Azerbaijani invasion runs a dangerously high risk of devolving into genocide.

We remind the world that genocide is not only expressed through mass murder. As was the case during the recent seizure of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh in September of 2023, genocide can also be expressed through a pattern of massacre, atrocity, and forced displacement from indigenous territory when the ideology behind these actions is aimed at destroying an identity in whole or in part.

Although Azerbaijani officials have recently distanced themselves from the plan for a “Zangezur Corridor” through Syunik, there are several reasons to remain concerned. After Azerbaijan’s aggressive war against the Armenian territory of Artsakh—which led to the brutal murder of Armenian civilians and the forced displacement of almost its entire Armenian population—Azerbaijan has publicly set its sights on Armenia’s southernmost Syunik Province, which it claims as its own territory, calling it “Western Azerbaijan.”

Most alarmingly, Azerbaijan has begun to amass its military forces along its borders with Armenia, including in its Nakhichevan enclave (which borders Türkiye). Last week Azerbaijan also began a series of joint military exercises with Türkiye, much as it did in the weeks before invading Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2020. These red flags suggest that Azerbaijan is readying itself for a possible invasion while also seeking to intimidate Armenia into ceding land and corridor rights to avoid invasion,” the statement reads.

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